A Hint About Chinese Foreign Policy

Henry Kissinger wrote a book about China, basically asserting that China's mindset is that it must be acknowledged as the center of the world, even if it doesn't do anything with that respect. For most of Chinese history, it has had two foreign policy goals: buffer zones between itself and barbarians (you know who you are) and to make barbarians understand and bow to Chinese superiority.  The difference between China and other empires is that imperial China didn't actually care if it ruled those other countries. As long as Korea, for example, acknowledged China's dominance, China left it alone.

Today, China and Taiwan have basically the same relationship. As long as Taiwan doesn't make noise about being independent, China is content. I submit that Tibet is a buffer between China proper (the part of China that is culturally Chinese) and India. In a world in which naval and air power are more important, China has been making noises about controlling far more sea and sky than international law allows, again as buffer zones (plus resources to be drilled for with China's ever thirsty economy). All of what is happening today is consistent with Chinese history.

Kissinger also pointed out that much of Chinese foreign policy is a game of chicken. China makes noise, people appease China, China declares victory and goes home.  Stalin threatens Mao, Mao says bring on the nukes; I've got people to spare. (most people don't realize how close the USSR and China came to war because of the Clash of the Titanic Egos between Stalin and Mao. If there is a war between China and the US, I'm betting it will be an accident during one of these psych games.

I've these problems on a smaller, more personal level when living in China. I observed two car accidents happen right before my eyes because the drivers were playing chicken over who will get to drive down an alley first.  I've noticed Chinese drivers glance at each other and then determinedly ignore each other so they can cut each other, or me, off. Chinese universities want to high more qualified western teachers without giving them tenure, so try to figure out what sort of high sounding PR they can offer.  And many times I've been used as the token white guy for PR for schools and English corners, just so parents can see me and be impressed.

So the next time you see China on the news, think of them as playing poker, and you'll understand what's going on.