China's Super Power Strategy

Since the Opening Up of China until roughly 2010, China has followed what I would call the "American Plan" of rising to superpower status. I'm afraid now it is switching to the "German Plan" of rising. You'll see what I mean quite soon.

Once upon a time, the British Empire was the world's superpower, it's navy by law required to have as many ships of the line as the next two powers combined (for most of that time the Spanish and French navies). But as the British economy matured, London bankers looked for new places to invest. Naturally they thought of the United States and started pouring money into our economy. Thus began a gradual shifting of the economic power, but even as British economic resources stagnated, their military and political commitments increased. Despite winning, or being on the winning side, of most of their wars, they went bankrupt paying for them and the debts. Adam Smith in his "Wealth of Nations" explained and predicted the economic factors that brought the Empire down even in the midst of their victories, particularly the increasing expense of technological improvements. And who had loaned them the money? America.

Now America is the superpower, by having absorbed British investment and avoiding costly wars when possible. Until the World Wars, the biggest war the U.S. fought was the Civil War, which cost so much that the Federal government could have bought the freedom of all the slaves instead and saved money on the deal, but I digress. Now America has naval and air power greater than the rest of the world combined. Now America has been investing in China, and then China started loaning us money. The parallels are striking.

But now I fear China is giving up the American Plan for the German Plan, with more aggressive stances and actions against its neighbors. Chinese national news broadcasters have at least one report every day about military improvements. The Chinese have a lot more history to feed their self-perceptions of importance than the Germans did. Chinese officials talk about how their nation "will not be contained." 

Fortunately China doesn't have much room for expansion. With neighbors like Russia, India, and Japan and the smaller nations banding together, it has limited room to maneuver. The more aggressive China becomes, the more the others unite. China also has domestic limitations, with predictions of such severe environmental damage that the Chinese economy might start shrinking about 2040, not to mention a population that doesn't believe in them. Beijing might be able to whip up nationalistic fever over foreign policy, but for domestic policy its people resist either actively or passively.  So while I believe it will be rough sailing in Pacific waters for many years to come, as long as America doesn't panic, the rocks can be avoided.